SSWins (Wins Standardized with respect to Strength of Schedule)

Whenever the BCS releases its Division 1 football rankings or the NCAA seeds team for March Madness, we frequently hear the phrase "strength of schedule." There are different measures for calculating strength of schedule, usually involving some measure of a team's opponents' records, and their opponents' opponents' records. Oddly enough, professional leagues, which tend to offer unbalanced schedules that favor regional and rivalry matchups, do not spark the same discussion. In the NBA, where each team plays every other team in a season, there is a very easy way to standardize win total with respect to strength of schedule. In reality, a team plays other teams between 2 and 4 times. On average, a team plays every other team 2.83 times (82 games / 29 potential opponents.) If we multiply a teams' individual winning percentages versus every other team by 2.83 and add the totals, we get a win total that nullifies scheduling.



For example, my Boston Celtics, were 4-0 versus the Atlanta Hawks, earning a winning percentage of 100%. We give them 100% of the win shares versus the Hawks, earning 2.83 wins. They were 2-1 versus the Charlotte Bobcats, earning 66.6% of 2.83, or 1.89. They were 0-2 versus the Lakers, earning 0% of 2.83, or 0 wins. We complete this proccess for all 29 opponents, adding the win shares at the end.



Our revised 2008-2009 standings would like the following, with actual wins in parentheses.



Atlantic Division

1. Boston Celtics 60.7 (62)

2. Philadelphia 76ers 41.9 (41)

3. New Jersey Nets 32.8 (34)

4. New York Knicks 32.5 (32)

5. Toronto Raptors 32.0 (33)

(The only change is that the Knicks stay out the basement. I'll be brave and gander that D'Antoni outcoached Thomas.)



Central Division

1. Cleveland Cavaliers 67.3 (66)

2. Chicago Bulls 41.9 (41)

3. Detroit Pistons 38.4 (39)

4. Indiana Pacers 36.3 (36)

5. Milwaukee Bucks 34.4 (34)

(No change except that the Cavs may be better than we thought.)



Southeast Division

1. Orlando Magic 58.9 (59)

2. Atlanta Hawks 47.1 (47)

3. Miami Heat 42.4 (43)

4. Charlotte Bobcats 36.3 (35)

5. Washington Wizards 20.3 (19)

(No change.)



Northwest Division

1. Portland Trail Blazers 54.9 (54)

2. Denver Nuggets 53.4 (54)

3. Utah Jazz 46.2 (48)

4. Minnesota Timberwolves 26.3 (24)

5. Oklahoma City Thunder 22.6 (23)

(The new formula breaks the tie at the top.)



Pacific Division

1. Los Angeles Lakers 63.1 (65)

2. Phoenix Suns 45.2 (46)

3. Golden State Warriors 29.2 (29)

4. Los Angeles Clippers 20.2 (19)

5. Sacramento Kings 13 (17)

(The Kings may be worse than we thought.)



Southwest Division

1. Houston Rockets 52.5 (#2, 53)

2. Dallas Mavericks 51.8 (#3, 50)

3. San Antonio Spurs 50 (#1, 54)

4. New Orleans Hornets 49.7 (49)

5. Memphis Grizzlies 25.2 (24)


( A big shake-up here as the Spurs drop two spaces and would lose home court in the playoffs. How is fair that they play the Lakers three times and the Clippers four while the Rockets play four against each?)



Several factors made be want to investigate NBA strength of schedule.

1. Teams play 4 games against the other teams in their division. If their division is very strong, they should gain wins.

2. The craziest factor I noticed while entering data is that teams in the same division play certain teams in different amounts. For example, If you had three games versus the Clips and four versus the Lakers, and another team has four versus the Clips and three versus the Lakers, you are essentially losing a win.

3. In time, I hope to apply this formula to 2006-2006, in which only one Western Conference team won less than 40% of its games.




If you would like a copy of my spreadsheet, e-mail me at thatstat@gmail.com.